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Saturday, 3 July 2021

When will the third wave of Kovid-19 arrive in India? Would that be horrible?

 When will the third wave of Kovid-19 arrive in India? Would that be horrible?

Scientists and the general public are now debating when the third wave of Corona will arrive after new cases of Covid-19 dropped and unlocked in several states. The relief is that vaccination in India is gaining momentum. More than 33 crore doses have been given till Thursday. Across the country, more than 20% of the adult population has taken at least one dose. However, 4.3% of the population has been completely vaccinated.


                                              When will the third wave of Kovid-19 arrive in India? Would that be horrible?

Scientists are also saying that how terrible the third wave will be will determine the status of the vaccination. Will there really be a third wave? If so, when? Will this wave be as terrifying as the other wave? These are the questions that are being answered. The discussion started when the director of Delhi-AIIMS, Dr. Randeep Guleria said on June 19 that the third wave would hit India in 6-8 weeks. This would be as awesome as the second wave. His forecast was in a way a warning not to skip the Covid-19 precautionary measures. Hand washing, social distantness and wearing the most special mask are required. But after that, discussions about it broke out on different forums.

Will there be a third wave?

Yes, all experts are convinced of this. In fact, epidemics can have a third, fourth, or fifth wave. Is also coming. What matters is how ready we are to face it. For the same reason the speed of vaccination has been increased. So that the maximum population is vaccinated before the third wave arrives.

There have been 4 studies and forecasts for the third wave in India. Let's find out what it says ...

1. The third wave will come in October: Reuters survey

Claim Cono: Reuters News Agency

Claim basis: A survey of 40 healthcare specialists, doctors, scientists, virologists, epidemiologists and professors was conducted between 3 and 17 June. Knowing their opinions on different questions.

What he said: The important thing is that 100%, that is, all the experts agreed that there will be a third wave in India. 85% said a third wave would come in October. However, some predicted a third wave between August-September and some between November-February. The good news is that 70% of experts believe that the third wave will outweigh the second wave. At that time there was a shortage of vaccines, medicines, oxygen, hospital beds. But even the peak in the third wave will not go up to four lakhs.

Warning: 65% of experts believe that children and the under-18 population will be at greater risk this time around. While 35% did not believe so. The head of the epidemiology department at the National Institute of Mental Health and Neurosciences (NIMHANS), Dr. Pradeep Banandar says the vaccine is not available for under-18s. They will be at the highest risk in the third wave. Cardiologist Dr. Narayana Health. Devi Shetty said that if a large number of children become infected, we are not ready for it. Nothing is going to happen to us in the last moments.

2. In the third wave, children are less at risk, adults are at risk

Claim Cono: WHO and AIIMS

Claim Basis: A seroprevalence study with a sample size of 10 thousand was conducted in 5 states along with the survey. Data of 4500 participants have been taken. Final results will come in two or three months.

What to say: If there is a third wave in India, there will be a risk in older children. It cannot be said that children will be at greater risk. In some areas, more children than adults have developed antibodies against the corona virus.

Dr. Professor of Community Medicine at Aims-Dihi. Puneet Mishra led the study. The survey says the urban areas of South Delhi had the highest sero positivity rate at 74.7%. Another horrific wave was witnessed in the area. Most people didn't even realize it and got a Covid-19 infection. Most people would have been asymptomatic.

The survey says antibodies have become ingrained in children. Even if schools are opened, there will be no risk. The second wave saw a sero positivity rate of 59.3% (similar in children-adults) in Faridabad (rural area) of NCR region. This is more than the previous national survey.

Gorakhpur was most affected in rural areas. It also means that there is more potential for herd immunity here. In Gorakhpur rural area, the group of 2-18 years got a sero positivity rate of 80%.

Warning: The survey revealed that 62.3% of the rural population has been infected with Kovid-19. But northeastern cities like Agartala have the lowest CER positivity rate (51.9%). That means the risk is still there in those areas.

3. The third wave will be the most frightening in Maharashtra: Covid Task Force

Claim Cono: Maharashtra Covid Task Force

Claim Basis: Survey and Analysis

What to say: A third wave could infect 50 lakh people in Maharashtra. More than 10% i.e. more than 5 lakh children will be infected. The number of active cases at the peak could increase to 8 lakh.

The task force says the wave will be the most terrifying. Even more deadly than another catastrophic wave. This will be due to the Delta Plus variant, whose first case in the country was found in Maharashtra. According to Love Agarwal, Joint Secretary in the Ministry of Health, when the mutation occurs in the virus. Then its life force increases. When there is a case, the risk of mutation is even higher. We have seen before and we are still seeing that cases are not decreasing in Maharashtra.

Warning: According to Maharashtra Food and Drug Minister Rajendra Sringar, 2.5 lakh out of 5 lakh children are likely to be hospitalized.

If all the bans are lifted by 4.15 July, the third wave will come in September: IIT Kanpur

Claim Cono: Researchers from IIT-Kanpur

Basis of claim: Created a mathematical model. It said there could be three scenarios if all restrictions on mobility were lifted by July 15.

What to say: Experts from IIT-Kanpur have made this prediction based on the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model. The epidemiological model estimates the number of people who have been infected with Covid-19 over the time series. This model is based on the data of the second wave.






The third wave peak in the first scenario will come in October. The peak will be 3.2 lakh cases per day. New and more contagious variants are considered in the second scenario. It is believed that no ban will be imposed, when the peak may come in September. But it can come up to 5 lakh cases every day.

           ગુજરાતી માં રિપોર્ટ વાંચવા અહી ક્લિક કરો


The third scenario estimates what would happen if tougher sanctions were imposed to stop the spread of the virus. Under this the peak will be weaker than the second wave but it will also double the peak of the first wave i.e. 2 lakh infections will reach per day.

Warning: All three scenarios claim that a third wave will come. The peak will be two, three or five times the peak of the first wave of September 2020. But researchers have not considered vaccination coverage. This is a drawback. Experts believe that increased coverage of vaccinations will also see a declining number of positive cases.

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